War and Peace

Violent conflict is caused by problems that prevent negotiated agreements

Violent conflict destroys the things desired by both sides, yet nonetheless constantly recurs. Why do groups not reach negotiated agreements that avoid destroying the very things being fought over? A seminal article about the causes of violent conflict theorizes that such conflicts are not caused by psychological biases like prejudice, but are rather caused by three types of problems. First, conflicts could be caused by information problems – the groups have different perceptions of each side’s capacity and commitment to fight. Second, conflicts could be caused by commitment problems – the sides do not trust each other to abide by negotiated agreements. And third, conflicts can be caused by issue indivisibility – the thing being fought over cannot be divided or substituted. This research suggests that sociological and psychological biases like prejudice may contribute to conflict by making these problems more likely, but do not themselves cause conflict.

Mistrust can be dispelled by costly signals of trustworthiness

As discussed above, mistrust can prevent groups from reaching peace. How can groups build the trust needed to make negotiated agreements and avoid conflict? Another seminal article discusses how groups can send each other costly signals of their trustworthiness and their preference for cooperation over conflict. A costly signal is a cooperative action so costly that a group will do it only if they sufficiently value cooperation and intend to cooperate; a group that does not intend to cooperate would not bear the cost. This research suggests that initial mistrust between groups can be dispelled, and that conflict is most likely to occur when groups’ mistrust is justified or when there are psychological barriers to dispelling it.

Do you have a study we should share for a future Facty Friday? Send an email to drg.el@usaid.gov!”