Supporting transitions to democracy and preventing democratic backsliding

Negotiated transitions to democracy succeed when trade unions are involved

Recent research shows that trade union involvement is integral to the success of a pacted transition to democracy – a transition that comes about due to negotiations between the ruling elites and the opposition.  The organizational capacity that trade unions bring ensures the opposition can credibly commit to negotiated agreements; it also provides a credible threat of strikes that ensures ruling elites abide by their negotiated agreements.  Without trade unions, successful pacted transitions have only occured in non-democratic regimes with established opposition parties and an independent Catholic Church.  This research shows the importance of the opposition’s organizational capacity for transitions to democracy.

Opposition tactics influence the ability of autocratizing leaders to erode democracy

New research from Professor Laura Gamboa analyzed how opposition strategies against an autocratizing leader affect the democratic trajectory of a country.  She found that a country is less likely to backslide when the opposition has moderate aims and uses existing political institutions to contest the autocratizing leader (like elections, legislation, and litigation).  When the opposition has radical aims and uses extra-institutional strategies that seek the immediate removal of the autocratizing leader (like coups, guerilla warfare, and violent protests), the autocratizing leader has the incentive and excuse to further erode democracy.  This research shows the importance of the opposition playing by democratic rules, even when the autocratizing leader does not. (link, link)

Do you have a study we should share for a future Facty Friday? Send an email to drg.el@usaid.gov!