Support for democracy among elites and the public

Successful democracies breed their own support

A recent article analyzed the effect of democratic government performance on support for democracy. Using data from 113 countries between 1981 and 2018, they find that living in a successful democracy increases support for democracy; living in an unsuccessful democracy has no effect on support for democracy. They measure success through indicators of economic growth, peace, and public goods provision. This research provides empirical support for the intuitive idea that citizens become more supportive of democratic institutions when democracy performs well.

Most political elites prefer ballots to bullets

A seminal article describes why political elites would support democratic elections. It argues that credible elections are a means to avoid costly civil wars. Without credible elections, rebellion is the primary way for political opposition to gain power. The opposition will rebel if they believe they can mobilize enough citizens to defeat the incumbent. A popular incumbent may defeat the rebellion, but at great cost. And an unpopular incumbent may be toppled by a popular opposition. With credible elections, this battle is played out at the ballot box, at much lower cost to the political elites. And best of all for political elites: today’s electoral loser can become tomorrow’s electoral winner, which is impossible for losers of civil wars. This research shows why political elites would favor democratic elections over dictatorship.

Do you have a study we should share for a future Facty Friday? Send an email to drg.el@usaid.gov!