Revolution, society, and democracy

In this painting by John Trumbull, General Washington resigns his commission as commander-in-chief of the Continental Army to a civilian congress. By resigning, he avoids the common misstep of revolutionary leaders bypassing democracy and using their military power to transition into authoritarian rule.

Revolution are social first before they become democratic

Research into understanding the process of democratization from below by the general population usually focuses on revolutionary protest and participation in that protest. However, research into the Tunisian revolution tells a different story, instead finding that most of the early protest was in pursuit of non-revolutionary social objectives and only transitioned into revolutionary protest towards the end. For example, in the early stages of the protest there was no relationship between democratic commitment and protest participation. By the late stages of the protest, however, participation was strongly associated with commitment to democracy. The research suggests that this pattern of protest development is common in revolutions driven from below.

How violent revolutionary autocracies stay in power for so long

While some revolutionary autocracies quickly fall, others are able to stay in power for a long time and overcome extreme internal and external pressures. Researchers identified a “reactive sequence” which determines whether a newly formed revolutionary autocracy will retain its power or quickly fall. In this sequence, the newly arrived autocratic elites try to radically transform the society, usually leading to backlash and conflict from within or without the country. The revolutionary autocracies that can overcome this initial conflict emerge with 1) a cohesive elite, 2) a loyal army, 3) powerful internal security, and 4) weak or non-existent political and social rivals. With these conditions met, revolutionary autocracies are now protected from losing power in elite upheaval, military coups, or mass protest.

Do you have a study we should share for a future Facty Friday? Send an email to drg.el@usaid.gov!