Elections, Trust, and Rallies in Authoritarian Countries

Strategic Pro-government Mobilization in Authoritarian Regimes

In many authoritarian regimes, the government uses popular rallies to bolster their support, often with costly measures to increase turnout, including payments, punishments, and closing schools and businesses. In this study, researchers analyzed pro-government rallies in authoritarian regimes between 2003-2015 to test whether governments rally their supporters in response to specific political threats they face. They found that authoritarian governments will strategically generate pro-regime rallies to bolster their strength in times of perceived weakness. These rallies were particularly likely before elections, in the run-up to a coup-attempt, and in response to opposition rallies. This research suggests that pro-regime mobilization may indicate perceived vulnerability in authoritarian regimes.

Protest and Government Trust in Russian Elections

A study of the 2011 Russian parliamentary elections found that, despite widespread allegations and evidence of voting improprieties, trust in government didn’t decline. However, when the government permitted protests against the election, trust in most government figures and bodies increased. The study’s authors argue that when voting improprieties are expected, they don’t change perceptions of the government. But when an authoritarian government permits protests against the election, it can increase trust in the government, primarily among opposition voters. These findings suggest that authoritarian governments may increase their legitimacy by selectively permitting public protest.

Do you have a study we should share for a future Facty Friday? Send an email to drg.el@usaid.gov!