Coup D’Etat, Democratization, and Power Consolidation

Popular mobilization can be the difference between democratizing and autocratizing coups

Why do some coup d’etats lead to increased democracy while others lead to increased autocracy? Recent research looked at coup attempts around the world between 1950-2019 to test whether the presence of popular mobilization and protest determined whether a coup would lead to democratization or autocratization. The research showed that successful coups paired with popular mobilization led to improvements in democracy, while successful coups without popular mobilization led to increased autocracy. The researchers argue that, following a coup, leaders are more willing to offer popular concessions to stabilize their rule, especially with credible civil society leaders who led mobilization. This research highlights the importance of strengthening civil society and organizational capacity to encourage democratic change.

Personalizing and centralizing power following failed coups

How do dictators respond to failed coup attempts? Research proposes that in the aftermath of a failed coup, leaders of dictatorships often respond by personalizing their power at the expense of allied elites. Using a dataset of 114 countries from 1946-2010, researchers showed that failed coups prompt dictators to increase the personalization of their regime, consolidating more power in themselves. The researchers propose that a failed coup gives the threatened leader the motivation and the opportunity to take more power for themselves. To exemplify this dynamic, the researchers also review how this pattern of response played out in Algeria, Sierra Leone, and Benin followed failed coups. This research suggests that timely reactions to failed coups may be essential to prevent further centralization of dictatorial power.

Do you have a study we should share for a future Facty Friday? Send an email to drg.el@usaid.gov!