Citizen Reactions to Political Violence

When assassination of an opposition politician boosts government support

Violence against politicians is typically expected to boost support for the victim’s party, as sympathy for the victim translates into sympathy for the party. However, this is not necessarily the case. After the 2019 assassination of Paweł Adamowicz, a Polish mayor from the political opposition, researchers found that support for the incumbent party in government increased. The researchers also found that this increase in support for the incumbent government was driven largely by citizens distancing themselves from negative campaigning by the opposition following the assassination. This research emphasizes the importance of inclusive messaging to rally support following the shock of political violence.  

Targeting informed voters with electoral violence?

Voter information campaigns propose that informed voters will be protected against common strategies for impacting an election, such as vote buying and ethnic appeals. However, some researchers proposed that political powers might therefore turn to electoral violence as a strategy to change the behaviors of informed voters. They tested this hypothesis by looking at newspaper readers (as a proxy for informed voters) and comparing survey data and pre-electoral violence data in 35 African countries. They found that informed voters, those who read newspapers, were more afraid of electoral violence and were more likely to be exposed to electoral violence in their neighborhoods than non-newspaper readers. These findings highlight the importance of institutional constraints on political actions to enable voter information programming to achieve success.

Do you have a study we should share for a future Facty Friday? Send an email to drg.el@usaid.gov!